
UP Study Warns of Heightened Typhoon Intensity this Century
“There’s no harm in hoping for the best as long as you’re prepared for the worst.” ― Stephen King
New findings from the University of the Philippines Diliman College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (UPD-CS IESM) indicate that the Philippines may face more potent and damaging typhoons due to climate change. Dr. Rafaela Jane Delfino and Dr. Gerry Bagtasa, collaborating with UK counterparts, reveal that upcoming Philippine typhoons could possess a higher Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) compared to current ones.
CDP, incorporating factors like cyclone size and wind speed, serves as a metric assessing potential damage costs, particularly from winds. The researchers analyzed data from recent typhoons, projecting them onto probable future climate scenarios (2070-2099) to determine heightened CDPs. The study focused on three historically deadly super typhoons: Haiyan (2013), Bopha (2012), and Mangkhut (2018).
Examining various climate projections and considering factors such as atmospheric temperature, sea surface temperature, pressure, and relative humidity, the researchers conclusively linked climate change to the intensification of the studied Philippine typhoons. Future typhoons are anticipated to be stronger and more damaging, with potentially faster winds and slower movement causing prolonged land exposure and increased damage.
In a forecast model, the CDP from a future cyclone resembling Super Typhoon Yolanda could be 37% higher than the 2013 damage. Another simulation suggests Super Typhoon Ompong’s maximum wind speed, currently at 205 kph, could reach 270 kph in a warmer climate. Projections also indicate up to a 50 kph increase in the maximum wind speeds of future typhoons like Yolanda and Pablo. These findings emphasize the urgent need for further research using diverse models and typhoon datasets.
“Based on our simulations, it is found that the most damaging tropical cyclones like Haiyan, Bopha, and Mangkhut will have higher wind-related damage potential in the future,” the researchers concluded in their paper.
“Tropical cyclones of such intensity and damage potential in the future will have serious implications with the increasing exposure and vulnerability in the Philippines,” they added, calling for further research using other models and typhoon data sets.

